Edition 124: June5th 2012
A horrifying economic disaster is coming!
News events and commentary:
My comment begins with ***
●Huge brand new oil and gas discovery off the Haifa coast in Israel. This together with the two previous strikes recently, makes it the largest recent oil and gas strike in the world. The company responsible for this find, Israel Opportunity Energy says that an estimated 6.7 trillion cubic feet of gas and 1.4 billion barrels of oil lie in the bedrock. (I have reported on the previous two finds in recent editions.) ***This is a game changer for Middle East and could play a vital role in the coming conflicts. In fact in this very edition, I refer to oil wars.
●Iran sends troops to Syria and warns the west that if they get involved in Syria, Israel will pay! Ahmadinejad says he has no fear of Israel!
●Iran’s spiritual leader “Thunder will fall on Israel if it attacks us. (Al Arabiya. 3rd June)
●Israel’s new German-made submarines fitted with nukes. (Der-Spiegel 3rd June)
A horrifying economic disaster is coming!
•There is some more related material in Edition 120 "The USA in prophecy."
“Blood on the streets” is a well known stock market term. Its meaning is obvious.
The previous recession was very deep and severe, but we hit the bottom and began to recover. The recovery has been slow, fragile and not broad based. We have seen a return to positive world economic growth, but it’s not secure by any means. In fact it’s now stalling again.
Some countries, particularly of the emerging markets are doing just fine now, but they will all be affected by a big world economic downturn.
●Here’s a quote of a few days ago by World Bank boss Robert Zoellick: “We’re headed for an impending catastrophe and a return to the great panic.”
●Billionaire legendary investor, George Soros says: “We have three months to fix Europe, and then world market disaster will follow.”
The problem is that more and more macro-economists, financial institutions and leaders of investment houses are starting to say the same thing.
Right now we have far too many things about to dovetail together on the world social, political and economic scene all at the same time. It is all spelling danger! January 2013 is the danger month on many fronts. There may be a solution here or there to one or two of these macro-economic issues, but that’s unlikely. Others simply have no solution!
The problem is that the world economic system and markets in particular, don’t like uncertainty. They also don’t like having to deal with more than one big issue at a time. Once a number of these issues arise simultaneously the whole system is in for a wild ride.
Many of the big macro-economic systems like stock markets are essentially driven by psychology. The emotion of hope is the main driving force behind growth. When hope get’s excessive it becomes greed forming an overreaction and a bubble in assets. This is always the emotion evident at the top of a market.
Then caution comes in leading to fear and a downturn in markets comes about. Fear drives a bear market. (That’s a falling market) But then fear becomes panic, which gives way to capitulation. This is when markets crash and overshoot on the downside.
It’s very important to know and understand that stock markets are forward looking. They price in the future. In other words, the current economic situation or even the current earnings of a company are already “in the market” and not that important.
Markets move now on expectation of what’s coming in the next set of company earnings. Likewise markets will move on anticipation of better times ahead or troubles coming.
The world economy, as well as a nation’s economy is inextricably linked to the stock markets. The stock markets are directly linked to many things like pension funds and investment vehicles of all sorts. Almost everyone in the nation, whether invested directly or not in the markets, are affected.
All commerce and in fact every single industry is related to the stock markets in some way, as are all banks and financial institutions.
When a stock market crashes severely or goes into a sustained downward trend (bear market), It affects the whole nation and not only individuals who own shares.
Because of the forward-looking nature of stock markets, when a big crash comes along, it means that huge troubles are still ahead for the world economy.
So these are the big issues we need to be aware of.
Right now, markets are cautious. The uncertainty is starting to create fear. It won’t be long before panic comes in and a market catastrophe is upon us. Then beware...big dramas lie ahead.
Have a look at the list below and bear in mind that these are the issues all starting to dovetail together. Can you see why we’re staring down the barrel of a fiscal gun?
The nightmare list:
The coming world economic tsunami:
●The US fiscal cliff is getting close.
●Unemployment is skyrocketing worldwide.
●China, Japan and other industrial biggies are slowing down too fast.
●The Euro Zone is doomed and will soon implode!
●World GDP growth is slowing and government debt is rising.
●Currency manipulation is turning into currency wars.
●The Middle East is about to go bang!
●Gold is speaking...you had better listen!
Let’s identify some of these issues.
The fiscal cliff: This is the term now being coined for a collection of financial dramas about to unfold in the US. In January, the Bush tax-cut regime runs out, meaning taxes will have to be raised almost across the board. Then we have a mandatory massive defence spending cut coming about at the same time. This will cause many industries and related businesses to close down sending unemployment numbers higher. Then we also have the debt ceiling about to be hit again, meaning that it will have to be raised. This will cause huge additional debt problems for the already debt laden and burdened US economy.
These issues collectively are being called the fiscal cliff. They are very significant and likely to send the US into recession again.
Unemployment is directly related to general economic slow-down, which we are now seeing in many large nations, some much worse than others. The problem is that it’s getting steadily worse and not better. Just a month or two ago the situation was looking better.
The Euro Zone is in huge trouble. Its debt issues are so big and growing so fast there is no way out without great pain. It’s a matter of months before it all collapses! We’re already seeing the start of a run on banks in Europe as people deposit less and withdraw more. The banks are all interlinked. Once one big bank falls, it will be like a domino effect around the world.
The Middle East situation is not improving; it’s on a knife edge. The big issues are Syria worsening and Israel ready to go to war with Iran over the nuclear weapons issue.
This would undoubtedly bring in other Arab nations and the super powers. We have a world war on the cards!
This will send the oil price into orbit and completely wreck the world economy sending the whole world into recession or worse. An oil price that’s too high creates massive inflation and stifles growth. The oil price is directly related to world GDP growth or lack of it.
You can be very sure that oil and oil-wars will play a big role in the future of the world economy and the Middle East situation. Iran has already threatened to use oil as a weapon in the coming conflict. Oil and the oil price is far too strategic to simply be left out of the end time scenario. (See the news items at the top)
It’s easy to knock down a cripple. That’s what the fragile world economic recovery is. It’s still on crutches.
A big war of any sort will dramatically affect world trade, commerce and industry.
A big war now will create fear and panic in markets. It will cause a mighty crash. It will cause a run on banks and a collapse of the banking system. That will in turn wreck property prices and cause unemployment to rocket even higher.
World debt: There is an unwritten but very logical law that once debt reaches a certain level it becomes unsustainable. In terms of macro-economics, we have a little thing called the debt to GDP ratio. GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product and is basically the big overall financial health of the country brought down into one number. It’s like the final earnings number of a company. So, GDP is like the earnings number of the country, while debt is obviously the final number of all the spending and total debt level.
So, the debt to GDP ratio gives us a look at how big the debt is in relation to the earnings, which relates to the ability to service the debt. Obviously if your earnings are not sufficient to service your debt, you’re finished.
As far as nations go, a debt to GDP ratio of more than 80% is seen as unsustainable.
Japan is now at 230% with debt growing fast. The US is now well over 100% with debt growing much too fast while GDP (earnings) is actually falling. Most of Europe is between 90% and 160% and with debt skyrocketing and GDP falling.
A nation like South Africa is on a debt to GDP ratio of 40%, which is easily sustainable.
Can you see the problem? Debt is escalating and growth is falling worldwide! That’s a formula for disaster, down the line.
Gold is speaking to us in the midst of these things.
Gold is a beautiful but very strange commodity. Unlike any other, it acts as a currency of sorts; it acts as a hedge against inflation. It acts as a hedge against fear on the world stage and of course it responds to its own fundamentals of demand and supply.
Gold has always had an inverse relationship to the US stock markets, although that hasn’t been the case for the last year or so. Now this relationship is surfacing again. As the big stock markets go down, so gold goes up.
Right now gold is just starting to spike higher after a mini downward trend of a few months. It is saying; currency troubles are coming. It is saying big dramas are coming to the world.
Gold will always be volatile, but don’t turn a deaf ear to it!
Wise investors will have some exposure to gold either directly or in the form of gold mining shares. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket, but when many things are falling out of bed, it’s nice to be able to tuck up to your gold!
Of course gold will ultimately fail as well, when all hell breaks loose in the world, but that’s not just yet!
The likely outcome:
We’re seeing a lot of feverish meetings being called all over the western world right now. Many are trying desperately to come up with a solution to these big problems in Europe and elsewhere.
There’s a fair chance that someone comes up with some sort of miracle solution and everything just carries on as normal. That’s not very likely.
The most likely scenario is a hefty unravelling of the world economy. We’re likely to see either a stock market crash of monumental proportions soon or a new severe bear market which will slowly but surely wipe out great amounts of wealth and speed up the world economic meltdown.
Ah, here come help from above...just in time!
One day the world will learn that you can’t rescue debt by issuing more debt!
The prophetic picture:
The big issue is that all these things are materialising and starting to dovetail together at the same time. The Bible has numerous prophecies of these things all coming about within a short space of time.
They will all intensify in the soon coming tribulation period, but we will see the beginning of them in this run-up period.
The Bible predicts a soon coming period of time where the world economy will come under the domination and control of a coming world master. The Bible says that the nations of the world will willingly give their control over to him! (Revelation 17:13)
Revelation 17:17 “For God has put it into their hearts to fulfil His purpose, to be of one mind and to give their kingdom to the beast...”
What an amazing situation! The nations of the world will all give up their independence and hand over to a one-world ruler, who will be none other than Satan himself, masquerading as the all-powerful and miracle working leader of the world.
Have you ever wondered at just how hard it is to control and dominate great masses of people? It is so, but it’s a lot easier if you can control the economy.
A command economy is coming. That’s the name for a communist economic system like the Marxist / Leninist system of the previous Soviet Union.
Here it is in the Bible:
Isaiah 10:13-14 “By the strength of my hand (Satan) I have done it, and by my wisdom for I am prudent; also I have removed the boundaries of the people and have robbed their treasuries...My hand has found like a nest the riches of the people, and as one gathers egg which are left, I have gathered all the earth; and there was no one that moved his wing nor opened his mouth with even a peep.”
Revelation 13:16-17 “And he causes all great small and great, rich and poor, free and slave to receive a mark on their right hands or foreheads, and that no one may buy or sell except the one who has the mark or the name of the beast or the number of his name...which is 666.”
The above two verses are shocking indeed. They spell out a soon coming savage command economy that will dominate and control the world.
These verses spell out the loss of national sovereignty and economic freedom.
While on the subject, let me just spell out something very important. We are not all created equal! We are all created free! Equal opportunity yes; but we must not have general financial equality. That always has to be created and forced into being. It kills incentive and initiative. We must be free to be ourselves.
There are many parables told by our Lord in which He encourages financial reward for hard work and the loss of reward for being a lazy slob. Equality as opposed to freedom means that the lazy bum gets rewarded and the brilliant hard working whizz kid gets punished! That’s not freedom. Freedom means you must be free to be a bum in the gutter or a wealthy entrepreneur and be rewarded accordingly.
Responsible freedom contributes to the state coffers and does help the poor a lot more than those in the command economies anyway!
These speak of a responsible free market system: Proverbs 28:3, Matthew 25:14-30
There are many verses of scripture that speak prophetically of mass panic in the great shaking soon to come.
Economic depression leads to mental depression in a flash!
Why these things are important now:
We must understand that none of these things happen in isolation. They’re all interlinked in many ways.
We don’t need to hit the panic button yet, but don’t disable it! If you wave the flag, make sure it’s not the red communist flag!
If you recall, the America-created sub-prime crisis knocked on to the whole world at lightning speed. Americans are so brilliant they can send people to the moon and also so stupid they wreck the world economy in a flash! (That’s meant light heartedly by the way)
These things can happen fast. Fear and panic come in quickly. The overall purpose is to create instability, fear, panic and capitulation. This is what Satan wants. This is when he will spring to life with his great ace trump of deception to produce control!
When in a situation like this you immediately look for help.
Because we’re in a spiritual climate we must understand that there are two sources of help. One source, unknown and unseen by most is the devil himself. He will offer help! But because he is a deceiver it will be for the wrong ultimate purpose.
The god of this world is running out of time. He is about to cause all sorts of chaos and in it all he will deceive and capture many in their deep troubles and lead them astray.
The second source of help is our Lord and God.
This is the place of safety. This is the place of peace in the midst of the chaos.
If you own shares or unit trusts or if you’re invested in other asset classes related to the stock markets, do not run out and sell out! You may well have to do that at the appropriate time, but it’s not just yet.
What I’m presenting to you is a very likely and probable development within the world economy, but as with all these things, probability can also go the other way. Probability also doesn’t put dates on things! What I am saying is “forewarned is forearmed”!
Don’t go running to hoard food and supplies like some are saying. We will see these things develop before our eyes, but they may be a few years off. (Sometimes it’s good to argue with yourself!)
A new economic crisis will hit the poor hardest. The masses in the cities and the rural lands will all be hit. There is no escape, but those in existing poverty or hard times will have no cushion of protection.
There is no escape. Economic collapse not only hits the poor hardest but creates a new world of poverty.
We’ve had a whole lot of recessions since WW11 and risen out of them all, but the world has not gone into a full blown depression like that of the 1930s since then. Today the world is a very different place. But depending on the severity of the downturn, depression could come back again.
America will come up with quantitative easing (QE), as will other nations. They will print money and try to stimulate the economy. QE1 and QE2 did not work. QE3, which is now on the horizon won’t work. Printing money, because you can is not the answer. Why would QE 3 work when 1 and 2 did not? QE has not worked in all the other nations that have implemented it.
O yes, it will relieve the markets in the short term but in the longer term it will in fact add to the debt problem and debase the currency sending inflation too high.
Do you know what has just happened to the gold price? It has rocketed higher. It went up an amazing $60 in one day, just on the scent of QE3!
You see, gold is being seen more and more as a safe haven and an alternative currency and investment asset class. So when it smells danger, it takes off.
Gold is likely to be a very good investment in the next while. But if we see a total collapse of the world economy, gold will not escape unscathed.
The answer to a big debt problem is not more debt but more hard work. Once in the debt trap, the way out is to slash spending, painful as that is in the short term and to ramp-up hard work and production. This is what produces growth.
To get out of crippling debt you need to stop spending like crazy and see economic growth fast-tracked.
Of course the big answer for us, who believe in our great God, lies in these wonderful verses below.
Psalm 37:25 “I have not seen the righteous forsaken nor his seed begging bread.”
Proverbs 10:3 “The Lord will not allow the righteous soul to famish, but He casts away the desire of the wicked.”
Proverbs 28:25 “...He who trusts in the Lord will be prospered.”
It’s all about your heart:
If your heart, soul and life’s motivation is to get rich and stay rich and wealthy with no regard for others you’re in huge trouble. A true believer can most certainly be prospered by our Lord, but because his heart is soft and broken before Him, he will keep all these things in balance and in relation to God’s call on his life.
I hope you read the verses above. They’re really very nice and encouraging aren’t they? Now read the verses below! Please take them in.
Hebrews 13:5 “Let your conduct be without covetousness and be content with such things as you have, for He says, “I will never leave you nor forsake you.”
Matthew 6:24 “No one can serve two masters...”
Ecclesiastes 5:10 “He who loves silver will not be satisfied with silver; nor he who loves abundance...”
James 5:3-5 “Your gold and silver are corroded and their corrosion will be a witness against you...you have heaped up treasure in the last days...you were a fraudster...You lived on the earth in pleasure and luxury; you have fattened your hearts as in the day of slaughter...”
You see, as said, it’s all about the condition of your heart. There’s nothing wrong with money. Money is not evil, it’s neutral. It’s what people do with it and to get it, that’s the problem.
By the way, that well known verse actually says this: “The love of money is a root of all evils.” It’s the excessive love of and pursuit of material abundance that’s the problem and what you do to get it!
A world economic meltdown is coming. We don’t know exactly when, but we can be pretty sure it will be here soon. The huge danger is in these things all dovetailing together at the same time. That will cause an economic crisis of monumental proportions.
I expect these things to develop and mature into 2013 and perhaps into 2014, but that’s not cast in stone by any means.
The real big issue as far as timing goes is Israel. That is God’s clock. Keep an eye on developments in and in association with Israel. As long as Israel is out of the picture you can put your feet up and relax! Actually you better not do that! Maybe just dream about being on a beautiful palm-covered island with pretty girls around and a nice sunset!
The full intensity of the upheaval will mature in the tribulation period. A that time, especially in second half, hundreds of other massive judgements and upheavals will all burst forth at the same time.
Hopefully true believers will be watching from the sky!
Psalm 112:3 “Blessed is the man who fears the Lord, who delights greatly in His commandments, his descendants will be mighty on the earth...wealth and riches will be in his house and his righteousness endures forever.”
Proverbs22:9 “He who has a bountiful eye will be blessed for he gives of his bread to the poor.”
Proverbs 11:28 “He who trusts in his riches will fall, but the righteous will flourish like foliage.”
Proverbs 11:24-25 “There is one who gives out yet increases more and there is one who withholds more than is right, but it leads to poverty. The generous soul will be made rich and he who waters will also be watered.”
Here’s a wonderful painting by Marc Chagall titled “The Dance” It reminds me of Leonard Cohen’s “Dance me to the end of love.” Okay, so what’s this got to do with a coming economic meltdown? It’s got plenty to do with it! You can either fall into fits of depression or you can dance your way to the sky!
Shalom and grow in grace!